ACPO's firearms stats are shonky as hell

[Gaz]

The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) has claimed that more legally owned firearms were lost or stolen over the last few years than appears to be the case, according to an exclusive analysis by The Register.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/10/20 ... rms_truth/

Headline figures - ACPO claims 10% more guns are stolen, on average, than is the case according to the Home Office. If you only look at firearms, that skyrockets to nearly double the number recorded by the Home Office. I'm certain they're including sound moderators in their stats for "firearms" losses/thefts, and going by the discrepancies I'm also thinking they're including non-civilian firearms to bulk out their numbers.

Bonus - right at the end are the (very) detailed Home Office stats I got from the BBC, which give details of each lost and stolen firearm and shotgun for the years 2007-2011. These are broken down into date of loss and what seems to be each item's FAC or SGC entry details. It's as detailed as you can get.

You're welcome to check my maths, all the sources are in the report and I spent days triple-checking the sums (and asking others to do so) to make sure I didn't drop a clanger.

[CDM5]

[nickb834]

Any thoughts as to what we can do with this info as regards ACPO (and whatever it's successor is?) to call them out on it?

[dromia]

I suggest sending your findings to our "representative" "national" bodies including the HBSA, GTA, SRA, MLAGB. Asking what the make of the data and what they are going to do with it if anything especially in relation to the recent unannounced visits guidance.

I'd also get a recognised firearms expert like Peter Squires to check the data over.

[Polchraine]

I wonder if ACPO included losses by their members and people working for their members?

[Charlie Muggins]

At the risk of sounding silly, what is the difference in law between a "slaughtering instrument", a "humane killer" and a pistol? All three are separate types listed. Since captive-bolt guns are not controlled items I can only conclude that police are obfuscating the number of short firearms that are held legitimately.

[Daryll]

I seem to remember a few years ago that when they did this sort of stats, it was reported that the police were basically doing a Ctrl F and "gun" on a crimes spreadsheet and counting the number of returns.

......Ignoring the fact that some of the stolen items were air guns, paintball guns, nail guns, staple guns or glue guns.....

[Gaz]

As far as I know they're all 5(1)(aba) prohibited firearms, whether held for slaughtering or something else. I have a feeling the raw data might have had some more details to pore over, but what's in that spreadsheet is fascinating enough already. Particularly the 12 bore shotgun which was lost from a club certificate in 2007!

Dromia - I think I will do that. The Countryside Alliance have been good enough to share the link around their social media feeds. BASC have kept stumm about it, though that might be because of page 2 of this, where I chose not to spare their blushes. But who are the SRA? Surrey Rifle Association?

I had ACPO on the phone on Friday asking me to delay publishing this until they could get their act together to comment on it. I suspect they're going to ignore it and hope it goes away.

[dave_303]

Dromia - I think I will do that. The Countryside Alliance have been good enough to share the link around their social media feeds. BASC have kept stumm about it, though that might be because of page 2 of this, where I chose not to spare their blushes. But who are the SRA? Surrey Rifle Association?

The Shooters' Rights Association,
http://www.shootersrights.org/

The Founder/secretary is Richard Law an expert witness on Firearms law.

[Gaz]

Chief Constable Marsh (via ACPO) has now responded after ACPO were caught claiming double the number of firearms are stolen in the UK than is actually the case. Bottom of this page: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/10/20 ... th/?page=2